I hope your year is off to a smashing start! How are your resolutions going...Damp January, anyone? My goal of sending my monthly newsletter by mid month fell short but hey, there is always next month! :)
As we enter the new year and contemplate what the market has in store for 2023, our CEO Robert Reffkin was on CNBC’s Closing Bell last week to share his outlook on the real estate market and the initial positive signs we are seeing so far.
For the first time in 10 months, all of the statistics he looks at are trending positively. Here are the 6 reasons Robert believes Q4 of 2022 may have been the bottom of the recent real estate market cycle:
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There was a 25% increase in weekly mortgage applications two weeks ago, and an additional 7% increase this past week.
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Mortgage rates continue to move down to 4-month lows.
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There’s an increase in buyer interest, open house traffic, and offers.
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In the last quarter of 2022, 42% of sellers were giving concessions to buyers at the closing table, a 10-year high.
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Home builder sentiment improved for the first time in 1 year.
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Pending closings were down 30+% at points in the fall, but over the last few weeks we have seen pending listings in most of our markets nearly flat year over year.
It may be too soon to tell what this year will bring, especially as tech layoffs continue but I have definitely seen an uptick in recent buyer activity. Open houses across the city last weekend were extremely busy with some agents reporting up to 100 groups a day!
As always, please don't hesitate to reach out if you have any specific real estate questions.
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Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics - such as "active listings," "days on market," and "months supply of inventory" - differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won't be reflected in the data. "Homes" signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, or their MLS areas, unless otherwise delineated. Multicounty metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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